The project consists of four work packages:
Work package 1: Development and refinement of climate scenarios and resulting land-use responses in collaboration with catchment stakeholders and KE dissemination
Future climate scenarios will be developed, focussed on the three UK Demonstration Test Catchments, Eden DTC, Hampshire Avon DTC and Wensum DTC. The climate scenarios will be presented at structured stakeholder workshops where an elicitation process will be used to define potential land use change scenarios. The workshops will also gather information on key variables, events, sequences and timescales on which to focus. The expert stakeholder groups will be used to develop and test approaches taken and results produced in the other work packages.
Work package 2: Modelling future changes in catchment hydrology in response to changing climate and land use
2a: Simulation of current and future precipitation events
This will focus particularly on extreme hydrological events and sequences of events, downscaled from a regional climate model to a scale appropriate to the Demonstration Test Catchments.
2b: Impacts on hydrology
The land surface model JULES will be used alongside the outputs from the stakeholder elicitation workshops in WP1 to assess the impact of land use changes on catchment hydrology.
Work package 3: Improved learning about phosphorus behaviour from new DTC data and experimentation
3a: Data analysis New high temporal resolution data from the DTC focus catchments will be analysed to examine the empirical relationships between phosphorus concentration and discharge, with a range of responses expected, depending on catchment typology, different antecedent rainfall conditions, variations in flow conditions and variations in phosphorus concentration.
3b: Supplementary experimentation Rainfall-runoff simulation and flume equipment will explore phosphorus mobilisation and delivery under extreme conditions expected in the 2050s, including event sequences (dry-wet extremes).
3c: Upscaling to catchment scale The influence of local changes in phosphorus fluxes on downstream eutrophication risk will be explored, including effects of climate change on in-stream processing.
Work package 4: Assessing uncertainties in future biogeochemical responses to climate and land use change
In this work package, an evaluation of the uncertainties in both existing process-based nutrient models and simple fuzzy rule-based models will be made, and a framework will be developed for evaluating the potential impacts of future climate and land management scenarios.